From bwheeler@echip.com Tue Feb  2 10:34:58 CST 1999
Article: 31790 of sci.math.num-analysis
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From: Bob Wheeler <bwheeler@echip.com>
Newsgroups: sci.math,sci.math.num-analysis,sci.math.stat,sci.stat.math
Subject: Re: Question: Solitaire (Klondike) odds
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 21:49:24 -0500
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To: Tom Sloper <actsearch@aol.com>
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The waiting time between wins seems to follow a
Poisson with mean about 10. The mean will change
with the game. Runs of like elements may be
approximated with a Poisson, which suggests that
this is an appropriate model for Solitaire.

-- 
Bob Wheeler --- (Reply to: bwheeler@echip.com)
        ECHIP, Inc.

Tom Sloper wrote:
> 
> Hi, Math Wizards,
> 
> I just ran down the list of all current topics here and didn't find
> anything on this.  So I hope this isn't a too-frequently-asked
> question.  I have a reason for asking -- I am a designer and producer of
> computer games, and am starting on a project.  The answer to my question
> would help me in play-balancing my new game.
> 
> I would like to know how many times, on average, a player plays Windows
> Solitaire before winning.  Normally I play 3 or 4 games in an evening,
> and don't win any.  Last night I played 2 games and won them both.  On
> average, how many games would someone expect to play before getting a
> win?  I would like to balance my new game to have about the same odds of
> winning.
> 
> (The specific version of Solitaire is a Klondike variant in which one
> draws 3 cards at a time from the stock, and can re-play the stock
> indefinitely, if that helps.)
> 
> I did some Web searching, and I found one mathematical discussion of
> various Solitaire games at this website:
> 
> http://www.chapman-lab.uaf.edu/~ftgrb/solit.htm
> 
> There didn't seem to be a discussion of Klondike, however.  Website's
> author is fsgrb@aurora.alaska.edu (Gordon Bower, Wagnerite
> Mathematician).  I tried Emailing him, but the address is no longer
> valid.  I also tried Emailing "ftgrb" as well as "fsgrb" at
> chapman-lab.uaf.edu (reflecting off his mirror site), but that didn't
> work either.  So I wonder if someone at this newsgroup would like to
> offer some mathematical thoughts on the question.  I assume there has
> been some work done on this question before.
> 
> Thanks in advance for any helpful replies at this newsgroup.
> Tom Sloper
> Activision
> tsloper@activision.com (weekdays)
> actsearch@aol.com (weekends)